A Brief Look At Jurriën Timber: Erik ten Hag's first signing at Old Trafford?
The Start Of Something New
It is crazy to think that the last time Manchester United hired a 'permanent manager' from the onset of their tenure was in May 2016, when the Red Devils brought in serial winner (yet recently sacked by Chelsea) Jose Mourinho. Once the Portuguese left the club in a distraught state, with players seeming to lack any motivation to perform and the fans (rightly) starved of any variation of positivity, United thought to follow in the footsteps of something a lot of clubs seemed to be finding success in - bringing in former players who 'know the club' as managers (Pep Guardiola at Barcelona, Zinedine Zidane at Real Madrid) - and got Ole Gunnar Solskjaer from Norwegian club Molde FK as an interim manager to get through the rest of the season.
What followed was an incredible (but unsustainable) run, followed by Ole being made the permanent manager, and the rise and decline of the side during his tenure. Ralf Rangnick came in next, another interim manager, who now finally seems to be on the verge of being succeeded by current Ajax boss Erik ten Hag.
This is not a detailed report about Ten Hag though (for that, you can check out his article by The Devil's DNA). If you've been on social media over the last week, you've certainly come across the rumour that the Dutchman wants to bring the Ajax starlet Jurriën Timber - and that is what we are here to talk about.
Following the rumours, United fans (including me) started speculating where the young centre-back would play at United. A particular section sees him as a Maguire replacement, wanting him to be paired with Raphael Varane, while some fans seem to think he should be deployed at right-back. And that is the question I want to tackle in this article - should United sign Timber, and if so, where is he likely to play.
His Role At Ajax
Timber has made 25 appearances so far in the Eredivisie, with a further 8 in the Champions League. He primarily plays as a centre-back alongside Lisandro Martinez. He's been excellent for the Dutch club, being at the heart of a defence that has conceded just 14 goals so far this season. As it usually is with the graduates of the famed Ajax academy, Timber is extremely comfortable on the ball, with his numbers for both passing and carrying being quite frankly ridiculous. He's fast and has consequently played as a right-back before, but with Mazraoui transforming into one of the best fullbacks in Europe, Timber found a permanent spot alongside Martinez this season.
Here is a visualization better highlighting his abilities, especially with the ball -
In the prototypical aggressor-sweeper partnership that we usually come across for centre-backs, Timber profiles as the sweeper while Lisandro Martinez profiles as the aggressor for Ten Hag's side. Keep this in mind, because this is something we will be coming back to shortly.
He likes to come to the middle of the pitch, where he acts as an extra midfielder and helps circulate the ball to aid the extremely aggressive high line deployed by Ten Hag. He also has a tendency to make darting runs into the forward line, sometimes running past Antony and Mazraoui. This however leaves Ajax exposed and they are prone to counterattacks from the opposition. Ajax can afford to get away with this in the Eredivisie, where almost all teams are quite inferior to them in terms of quality, but the situation won't be the same in the Premier League.
His Potential Role At Manchester United
Let's begin with the assumption that Ten Hag would want to deploy Timber as a centre-back. In such a case, it makes more sense to pair him alongside Harry Maguire. Although having a very poor season, Maguire is still United's best centre-back when it comes to ball progression. What's also important to note is that he is of the 'aggressor' profile, which makes him the better partner for Jurriën Timber.
Although, the issue with signing him should be getting clear now - United already had Victor Lindelöf in the 'sweeper' profile, only to then bring in Raphael Varane, a player who spent the best part of his career playing as the cover player for Sergio Ramos. While Timber can theoretically be paired alongside the world cup winner or the Swedish international, it does not suit the team long-term since an aggressive centre-back is needed to step in and win the ball early while the opposition tries to counter.
Even if we assume United can play Varane as the aggressor (which he strangely has this season), the team still loses out on a lot of the ball progression and the line-breaking ability of Maguire. Combine this with the fact that he's the current captain & was bought for an enormous fee, and it becomes very difficult to drop him. So what's the cost of buying Timber then? United need to bench either their most decorated defender or their most expensive one.
The second option which a lot of fans have suggested is to play him as an inverted right-back. Before we go further into this, let's take a look at what Mazraoui brings to the table which Timber would potentially need to replicate.
With the ability to underlap or overlap almost at will, it shouldn't come as any surprise that Bayern Munich have turned to the Moroccan international to slot in at right-back from the 2022/23 season (deal not yet completed at the time of writing). Mazraoui is an incredible athlete, is a very good defender, and an even better attacker. With Antony often holding the width on the right side, Mazraoui often makes underlapping runs between the opposition's left centre-back and left-back (who has gravitated towards Antony). He exploits this space and then combines with other attackers to create chances for his teammates. When Ajax aren't attacking at speed and are building their attack slowly, Antony eventually starts to drift inside and Mazraoui then assumes the overlap position. To put it in fewer words, he has developed an awareness & a familiarity within the system as to where to be in order to support Antony (right-winger) and the other attackers in different scenarios.
If Erik ten Hag wants to replicate this like-for-like, and we assume Timber is the man to do it, this is essentially the role he has to fulfill on the right side of the United defence. From what I have watched of him, Timber doesn't possess the quality Mazraoui does. Timber is certainly a good passer, but his passing comes from the luxury of being the last man and having the entire pitch in front of him. This won't be the same at right-back, where you only have half the side to attack and are usually a pressing trigger for the opposition. This would require an incredibly skilled player with very good control of the ball in tight spaces - something I feel Timber lacks (at least for now).
When receiving the ball *that* high, the technical quality and security the position demands is on an almost elite level. Timber, if put into this position, would struggle no matter how good he currently is.
An argument against this is to flip the system by allowing Shaw to play the Mazraoui role while Timber stays back, forms a back-three in possession, and performs the role Daley Blind does at Ajax. This is a little more suited to how he plays, but the passing range such a fullback needs to have to allow the system to work as well as it has been working at Ajax is, again, bordering elite. And this is what Blind has in abundance - the former United player is one of the best players in the world when it comes to ball-playing and his range of passing from the withdrawn fullback position is something Timber simply can't match up to. This doesn't optimize Timber's best qualities either, and in such a case, bringing him in for what will surely be a sizeable amount even if not spectacular will still take budget away from arguably four or five positions where United seriously lack options.
If United want someone to fulfill a role similar to what the fans are demanding of Jurriën, it would probably be better to allow Diogo Dalot, still just 23 and who himself was one of the most exciting fullback prospects in Europe when United bought him, to learn and develop in that role under one of the best coaches (something that has been missing throughout his tenure at Old Trafford) out there. He has looked closest to what could be his best form under Rangnick, playing as an inverted fullback, using his passing ability to break opposition lines and ping balls into the feet of forwards with 'snappy' passes. The Portuguese should be given a chance under a system that optimizes his strengths and United should probably then look to upgrade that position in future windows.
Conclusion
A really balanced take on Timber.
ReplyDeleteReports state we're looking for at least one CB.
So if we're ideally in for 2 CBs with timber being one of them. I'd think he's coming in as a RB
Plus ten hag knows him better than us & is aware of the physical demands of the EPL.
Pretty sure he has a clear plan for him
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