What's Going On At Atletico Madrid And How Can Manchester United Approach their UCL R-16 Tie Against Them

The Round of 16 Draw for the UEFA Champions League came with its fair share of drama - with United being initially drawn against Paris Saint-Germain, causing a fan uproar as the prospect of Ronaldo and Messi going head-to-head again - only for the draw to then be re-done with the Red Devils being finally picked to face the current Spanish Champions, Atletico Madrid.

As I start writing this article, Atleti are coming off a defeat to Xavi's Barcelona in what was a rather underwhelming display from the Colchoneros. 

This led me to delve a little deeper into their season so far through data and look at how United might potentially overcome the Spanish Champions.

Their Season So Far

Looking at the Expected Goal Difference (xGD, which is Expected Goals For - Expected Goals Against) so far this season, Atleti rank third in the league, behind Real Madrid and Barcelona. In terms of xG, they rank 5th while according to xGA, they are the best defence in the league.

In short, Atleti are still pretty good - and should be more than a match for Manchester United. However, they are in a poor run of form. From December, they have won just two matches out of eight, drawing one and losing five. But, we'll come to more of their recent form later in the article.

Simeone has set his team up in a variety of formations this season, starting this season with a 3-5-2 formation and has more recently reverted back to a 4-4-2 flat formation. In between, the Argentine has also tried out a 4-2-3-1, a 3-4-3 and most recently against Barcelona, a 4-3-3 with a midfield of Koke, Lemar and De Paul. So many changes in just over half a season usually don't indicate a good, settled side - more on that later.

Right now, let's take a look at who has been their top threat creators this season -

No surprises here. Carrasco, De Paul and Lemar are the guys United need to keep a close eye on, with Carrasco and De Paul getting more regular minutes than the Frenchman.

In terms of 90s played in La Liga, Carrasco is only behind goalkeeper Jan Oblak, with De Paul ranking 5th and Lemar ranking 11th.

 

Now, let us take a look at how and where these three are generating the threat from -

Carrasco operates largely from the left-wing, Lemar from the left-wing or the left half-space, and De Paul looks to be the primary ball progressor from the middle third into the final third.

So these are the three main threats when it comes to Atleti, now let's look at where does the entire team generate their progressive passes from, and who are the primary receivers of those passes -

The passes are mainly coming from out wide, followed by the left and right half-spaces. Corners also look to be a genuine threat-creating tool for the Los Rojiblancos, and this can be seen from the previous visualization too - with Carrasco, De Paul and Lemar successfully finding their targets with a lot of corners. This has resulted in Atleti scoring 6 goals from corners this season. This should be an immediate concern for Manchester United and Ralf Rangnick, as the Red Devils have constantly shown vulnerability from set-pieces.

Further crunching the numbers to check who are the most frequent receivers of those progressive passes, two unsurprising names of Luis Suarez and Ángel Correa show up.

Looking at their heatmaps, one thing I was not expecting to see is how far back Suarez drops to receive passes, and inversely, how much more Correa is involved inside the box than outside it. Both these forwards are joint top-scorers for Atleti having scored 8 goals so far in the league, with Correa providing a further four assists while Suarez providing two.

Here are the shot maps for both the strikers:

 As a team, Atleti have scored the fourth-most goals in the league, joint level with Barcelona, and the underlying numbers would suggest that their attack is pretty good too (fifth in the league) although they are overperforming their xG as a team. 

As we can see here, the second half is where Atletico really show up as a team. They have been leading at HT in only 6 out of 22 matches (27%), and that is probably the reason they start attacking more in the final half hour of the game.

Another damning statistic against the Los Rojiblancos is that they have scored first in just 13 out of 22 matches, and have further won just 7 out of those 13 matches (with 3 draws and 3 losses).

In conclusion, Atleti's attack has been pretty decent if not amazing, and given how Simeone is not known for playing free-flowing attacking football, this is not really a surprise. When United face off against them on the 24th, United should take advantage of Atleti's slow start (which is a positive sign given how under Rangnick, United have been very good in the first half). But conversely, United also need to defend better in the second half when Simeone's side invariably turns up the heat.

United also need to close down Rodrigo de Paul, who will be the primary ball progressor via passing from the middle to final third now that Trippier has moved to Newcastle, and should then look to lock down Lemar and Carrasco in particular, who will look to drop deep, carry the ball into the final third and create chances for teammates.

However, their defence, and one player in particular, has seen a massive drop off this season, and that is what has put Atletico in a position of concern.

The Defence

A quick glance at this chart, and it can be seen that Atleti have played pretty well, and have lost games they ideally shouldn't have - most notably in their recent fixtures to title rivals Real Madrid, Sevilla and Barcelona. Their xG has almost always been better than their xGA, with the latter exceeding the former just thrice across the season - meaning just thrice Atleti were expected to concede more goals than they scored.

Usually, stuff like this can be attributed to a bad run of form, which is also true to a certain degree, but there is a thing to be noted here -

Their defence as such hasn't been bad - in fact, as previously mentioned, their defence according to xGA has been the best in the league. But the difference between their actual goals conceded vs expected goals conceded has been stark in a lot of games. So why have they been conceding so many goals?

Jan Oblak

People may have their opinions on who has been the best goalkeeper over the last decade, but unanimously, a majority of people would agree that Jan Oblak is definitely up there.

However, something is not right with the Slovenian goalkeeper this season.

This metric (from Statsbomb via FBRef) measures the extent to which a goalkeeper is overperforming. And until last season, when Oblak helped Atletico Madrid win the La Liga title for the first time since the 2013/14 season, the current Slovenian Footballer of the Year has been overperforming every season.  

Nevertheless, Oblak's performances have massively dropped off this season, and are the primary reason Atletico might fail to retain the La Liga title this season. He has been probably the best shot-stopper over the past decade alongside De Gea, and Atleti have depended on him to bail them out of trouble. This season, it looks like while the whole team is working extremely hard to build a solid defence, it is Oblak's underperformance that has caused them to concede 30 goals from ~18 xGA, a drastic 12 goal difference. This means even if Oblak had just been ''average", Atleti would have only conceded somewhere between 17-19 goals, but so poor has been his form, that they have let in way more goals than Simeone would have liked.

Here is a look at the goals/shots conceded by Atletico so far this season -

It's visible how many low-quality shots Oblak has let in this season, which is surprising for a keeper of his quality. This may bode well for United's forwards like Cristiano Ronaldo, Bruno Fernandes and Marcus Rashford, all of who like taking shots from distance. If Oblak's torrid form continues when the Red Devils face them, United may just be able to overcome Atleti, as De Gea, who is a similar shot-stopping keeper as Oblak, is currently the best in Europe's top 5 leagues when it comes to goal prevention.

Simeone's Transition

One of the things that has happened this season, is that Atleti have finally become a 'possession-dominant' team, i.e., they are finally averaging over 50% possession on average in the league. They are at an all-time high of 53%, and 2020/21 was the first time they crossed the 50% mark. From 2014/15 to 2019/20, they averaged under 50% of the ball and that's when they found their identity of being the 'underdog', relying on their defensive doggedness rather than on-ball ability.

Their number of completed passes have also been rising steadily, season on season, and peaked last season.

The number of pressures they apply per 90 has also been decreasing over the past five seasons, which is common when you consider they might be trying to keep the ball more. Whilst the numbers may indicate a slight change in philosophy from Simeone, this might also be a consequence of their growing stature as a 'big club' in Spain which is causing other teams in La Liga to sit off them more and more.

Manchester United vs Atletico Madrid

It has just dawned on me that Carrasco will be unavailable for both the UCL fixtures against United as he was suspended against Porto. This should be great news for Ralf Rangnick as one of their chief ball progressors and chance creators will now be absent. It will be interesting to see who replaces him on the left; and my guess for that position would be Thomas Lemar, and if not him, João Félix.

If Thomas Lemar plays out on the wing, it would mean Simeone might look to play a midfield three of Koke, De Paul and Marcos Llorente in a 4-3-3 or a 3-5-2.

In addition, United's weakness from set-pieces would be something Simeone would certainly look to target.  Rangnick's side have famously failed to score even a single goal from over 100 corners, whilst Atleti have already scored six. United have been poor from set-pieces in general, although there has been some improvement in recent games.

Simeone's center-backs aggressively step up to win the ball, while Koke will usually play as a conservative '6'. While the opposition have the ball, Atleti try to push the ball out wide and try to outnumber the fullback using the forward closer to the ball, a midfielder and their full-back. Then they will cut-off passing angles in a way where the opposition player will try to play the ball towards the center, and that is where the other striker and a second midfielder will try to intercept the ball.  This means that United would need Shaw and Dalot, as they are much more comfortable on the ball as compared to their alternatives Telles and Wan-Bissaka. Given McTominay's tendency to hide behind the opposition players, I would also prefer to see Matic in the holding role alongside the Scottsman or Fred.

With Trippier gone, they have lost a lot of creativity via crosses, and now with Carrasco unavailable, will miss a lot of ball progression and chance creation. If United can then keep De Paul and Lemar in check, Atletico will be forced to play the ball long to Suarez and co., which Varane and Maguire can simply gobble up. João Félix's trickery and Marcos Llorente's late runs into the box will also be something United will need to keep an eye on.

Closing Words

To conclude, United have got their work cut out for them. Atletico Madrid haven't been as bad as their form would suggest, and even though Rangnick's side have slowly been improving, this would be a stern test for a team that already struggles to break down a tight defence. A huge test awaits Rangnick and co. at the Wanda Metropolitano Stadium.

Note: All data for the 2021/22 season are taken until 11-Feb-2022.

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Data/Resources:

FBRef.com
Understat.com
Soccerstats.com

McKay Johns (Twitter Profile, YT Link)

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