What's the fuss all about?
For some reason, a 4-3-3 formation seems to now be synonymous with free-flowing, possession-based, attacking football. Guardiola is probably the poster boy of the modern 4-3-3, with his two most infamous sides implementing the said formation, his Barcelona team (Busquets-Xavi-Iniesta) and his Manchester City team (Fernandinho/Rodri-Silva-De Bruyne).
Jürgen Klopp at Liverpool is also a user of the 4-3-3, with his midfield usually consisting of Fabinho, Henderson and Wijnaldum (with other midfielders stepping into one of those roles as and when required). Manchester United fans seem to be consistently calling for the implementation of this formation, partly due to the strange dismissal of Fred and McTominay's strengths, and partly due to the fetish of wanting to see Pogba and Fernandes in midfield.
Fans went wild during the 2021/22 pre-season, when ESPN reported in July that "Solskjaer has told his players he wants to implement a more attacking 4-3-3 formation this season, which could spell the end for the infamous midfield duo of Fred and Scott McTominay". They were convinced all United now needed was a defensive midfielder, and they could finally satisfy their cravings for this coveted formation. Despite all that, as of 19th August 2021, United haven't been linked to a single defensive midfielder, with concrete reports only linking the Red Devils to Eduardo Camavinga (Rennes/France) and Saul (Atletico Madrid/Spain) when it came to midfielders.
Before we delve further into our primary question, let us try to understand what a 4-3-3 really is.
The Mona Lisa of Formations?
A 4-3-3 comes in a variety of styles and systems. Before I give you examples of the stereotypical roles that make up this formation, let's define the terms I will be using:
- The 6: Also called the "CDM", or the Center Defensive Midfielder, this player sits as the base of the midfield three, just in front of the center backs. His primary role is to screen the defense, recycle possession and participate in the build-up phase.
- The 8: Also called the Box-to-Box midfielder, this player is mainly responsible for progressing the ball, along with supporting build-up and/or chance creation.
- The 10: Also known as the "CAM" or the Center Attacking Midfielder, is mainly responsible for receiving the ball in tight spaces and creating chances for the forwards, and in some cases, for scoring goals.
Now that we have defined the terms, let's take a look at the kind of 4-3-3s most commonly seen in football.
1. One "6" and two "8"s
This is the most common implementation of the 4-3-3, and was the system used by Pep and Klopp which we discussed earlier.
The EURO 2020 winners, Italy, also implemented a 4-3-3 system, with their midfield three consisting of Jorginho, Barella and Verrati/Locatelli.
2. One "6", one "8" and one "10"
This is what a majority of United fans think Ole *should* implement (more on this later), with a CDM playing behind Paul Pogba (8) and Bruno Fernandes (10). If you want to think of a team that currently uses this formation, think Leicester City, who deploy a midfield (provided everyone is fit) of Wilfred Ndidi (6), Youri Tielemans (8) and James Maddison (10).
3. One "6" and two "10"s
Now, this is a system that would work only on FIFA or Football Manager unless you are Pep Guardiola, whose Manchester City side have used Fernandinho/Rodri as the 6 with David Silva and Kevin De Bruyne ahead a few seasons ago. Demanding a team to play with this system is quite unrealistic, as it would need a lot of very technically refined players, all of whom are comfortable in possession.
4. Two "6"s/Two "8"s and one "10"
This system is what most people recognise as the 4-2-3-1, and is the system United currently employ under Ole. Both Fred and McTominay are "8"s, but of different styles to each other, playing behind Bruno Fernandes. Arsenal also implemented this system in the latter half of last season, with Thomas Partey and Granit Xhaka/Dani Ceballos playing behind Martin Ødegaard or Emile Smith Rowe.
So, what makes this formation special, and why are so many United fans incessantly demanding Ole to ditch "McFred" and opt for it? Well, as I mentioned earlier, the 4-3-3 has become synonymous with "positive" and "progressive" football, with a lot of fans believing that the 4-2-3-1 is somewhat of an archaic formation. Another set of fans argue that this is the formation that would suit Pogba's qualities the best, and often cite Juventus as an example, where Pogba played alongside the likes of Andrea Pirlo, Arturo Vidal, and sometimes Claudio Marchisio and where they feel Pogba was at his peak.
United's changing 10s
Apart from the few occasions when he switched to a back-three, Ole Gunnar Solskjær has almost always preferred a 4-2-3-1. Before a certain Portuguese magnifico graced the Old Trafford pitch, United tried the 4-3-3 formation (with Matic-Herrera-Pogba), but eventually settled on the 4-2-3-1 with one of Jesse Lingard and Andreas Periera occupying the number 10 role. Needless to say, neither of them are anywhere close to being the world-class - let alone elite - level creator a team would need to challenge for major silverware. United were heavily reliant on counterattacks, with no certainty as to how they would break down a deep block. Apart from Paul Pogba, there weren't many other players in the team which Ole took over who could break down opposition defences.
Things changed however when Bruno Fernandes arrived at Manchester United in January 2020. He arrived in England having directly contributed to 15 goals for Sporting Lisbon in Portugal, and hit the ground running, contributing to another 15 goals in the remainder of the 2019/20 season. Bruno was responsible to making things happen in the final third, taking risks, and arriving in the box to score goals. Pogba, on the other hand, was playing in the pivot alongside Matic and was tasked mainly with ball progression duties.
Jumping to the current season, Ole put Pogba on the left of the three behind Mason Greenwood (playing at striker). The Frenchman registered four assists and the Portuguese three goals, with the two combining for two of those goals.But why is all this important? Let's take one final detour before we arrive at the crux of the question we are trying to answer, and see what do Fred and McTominay do that makes them Ole's go-to pair in the pivot behind Bruno Fernandes (especially in the big games).
The "McFred" dilemma
What do Scott McTominay and Fred offer to this United side that makes them indispensable in the manager's eyes?
Note: The viz accounts for central midfielders and defensive midfielders only (as defined by FBRef) in the top five leagues, who have played more than 15 90s in the 2020/21 season.
They are both good ball-winners without really being exceptional (like Kante or Ndidi), but neither is really that good at progressing the ball:Note: The viz accounts for central midfielders and defensive midfielders only (as defined by FBRef) in the top five leagues, who have played more than 15 90s in the 2020/21 season.
This is probably where the biggest issue with the current pivot lies, in the inability to progress the ball effectively and quickly without the need for erratic passing. This also explains why Ole prefers Pogba in the pivot when playing against teams likely to sit back, as the Frenchman excels when it comes to ball progression thanks to his excellent passing ability.
The point I am trying to make here is that they are very clearly two central midfielders playing in a very aggressive pivot, which can be seen with how often both of them commit and dive into challenges (thereby leaving the defence exposed). But if we go by what's known to us, it would look like that's what Ole likes anyway. He wants United to try to win the ball back high up the pitch and try to exploit transitions. And this is what this partnership ultimately is - a harrying, tenacious, physically strong, and most importantly, a very energetic midfield pivot.
Note: The viz accounts for central midfielders and defensive midfielders only (as defined by FBRef) in the top five leagues, who have played more than 15 90s in the 2020/21 season. Finally, with all the context that has now been set, it is time to discuss why Ole may not really want to switch to the 4-3-3 formation after all.
Bruno Fernandes
The answer a section of United lovers may not want to hear, is that Ole most probably wants to play the 4-2-3-1 owing to the presence of Bruno, and because that is what suits him the best.
Bruno is afforded the freedom to roam around in the entire final and middle third of the pitch, to occupy spaces left by others and try to create for the forwards. However, his playing style is not that of a traditional "10" or a pure creator. He plays a lot like a second-striker, in a similar way to what Wayne Rooney used to do. He likes to not only create for others, but also to exploit the space left by the forwards to get into the box and try to score goals.
Even against Leeds, for whom the Portuguese is practically the kryptonite, Bruno routinely moved into spaces vacated by Greenwood which earned him the opportunity to score his first hattrick for the club.
As it can be seen here, Greenwood drags the Leeds defender away which leaves space behind, which Bruno runs into. Paul Pogba makes a good pass, Bruno takes an excellent touch and slots the ball away.
Playing a 4-3-3 may suit Pogba more than playing in a midfield pivot, but it massively limits the damage Bruno Fernandes can cause. He will have to play a very reserved role and would not have the freedom that the 4-2-3-1 affords him, unless Ole can turn this United team into a version of Guardiola's centurion City side.
At EURO 2020, we saw firsthand how drastically Bruno's effectiveness drops off when he played for Portugal on the right of a 4-3-3.
He played a little over 2 90s overall and had to do a lot of tracking back and provide cover for an under-par Nelson Semedo. He didn't contribute directly to any goals in the tournament and was later benched by Fernando Santos for Joao Moutinho, who is much more suited to a 4-3-3.
Now, of course, we have to establish that International games and domestic games are very different, and the EUROs numbers are very limited, but it perhaps offers the deepest insight into what United would lose if they did indeed switch to a 4-3-3.
Bruno Fernandes is one of the best attacking midfielders in the world, and as @utdarena often talks about, when it comes to the highest of levels, teams need to optimize their best players. This is precisely what Solskjær does so often, playing Pogba sometimes on the left of a 4-2-3-1 and sometimes in the double pivot. It allows Pogba to function higher up the pitch without the negative consequences that come from his lack of defensive awareness.
Conclusion
Despite what Football Twitter will tell you, Ole is far from a "naive" and "clueless" manager. He has consistently plugged holes in the United team and has brought the club strides ahead from what he inherited. Both the midfielders United have been linked to this summer - Camavinga and Saul - are undoubtedly "8"s and not "6"s. It would be reasonable to suggest Ole might look to upgrade one of McTominay and Fred pretty soon, but any hopes fans have of United switching to a 4-3-3 any time soon might be far-fetched.
With Pogba's future having been uncertain ever since the Norwegian took over the Red Devils, it makes sense for him to build and evolve the team around Fernandes who offers long-term commitment. To summarize, the presence of Bruno Fernandes, the qualities he brings to the team, are far too valuable to Ole and it makes sense to optimize his output as much as possible. The Portuguese is certainly the jewel in the crown of the United side Ole Gunnar Solskjær is building.
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