Trying to Replace Jordan Henderson at Liverpool

Jordan Henderson is one of the most underrated players in the juggernaut that Liverpool Football Club have been over the past few seasons. An exemplary leader on and off the pitch, not only is he passionately in love with the club like Gerrard was, but he is also a truly skilled midfielder. Not known for his roulettes over step -overs though, his game is quite simple. No one, some 6-7 years ago, would have really thought that a stereotypically English midfielder would one day lift the Champions League and the Premier League for the Merseyside club, an accomplishment that even evaded Gerrard.

Things changed with the arrival of Jurgen Klopp, and under the German, Henderson found a home as the lone DM or on the right of a midfield three in a 4-3-3 formation, often tasked with covering the space vacated by Trent Alexander-Arnold in the latter role.

Two qualities that made the Englishman indispensable to Liverpool the most over the past few seasons were his progressive actions and his long passing/switches of play. Over the past year, he ranks in the top 2 percent for midfielders in Europe's top 5 leagues when it comes to progressive passes, and the top 9 percent for progressive carries. Over the past four seasons, he averages ~7.3 progressive passes/90 and almost 13 long passes/90 with a 70% accuracy. He is truly exceptional when compared to midfielders in Europe's top five leagues when it comes to progressing the ball into the "chance creation" phase (Note: He also spent his time playing as a center-back for Liverpool last season):

It goes without saying that it is going to be an uphill battle for Liverpool to replace the now 31-year-old, but with contract talks seemingly having stalled, it might be an opportunity to not only replace Henderson in the long run. Like I did with Jules Kounde in my previous article, I employed Machine Learning and K-Means Clustering to see what options pop up. 

Here were my considerations:

• Minimum of 15 90s completed last season
• Under the age of 26
• Only central midfielders and/or defensive midfielders (as classed by FBRef.com)
• Passes Completed/90, Progressive Distance of Passes/90, Long Passes Completed/90
• Progressive Passes/90, Possession-adjusted Tackles Won/90, Possession-adjusted Interceptions/90
• Pass Into Final Third/90, Prog Distance Carried/90, Passes Into The Box/90, Passes Under Pressure/90, Clearances/90
• Times Dispossessed/90, Carries Into Final Third/90, Progressive Carries/90, KeyPass/90, ShotCreatingActions/90

Out of all the players suggested by the algorithm, I picked four midfielders based on their price and how feasible the deal might really be. The players are:

Maxence Caqueret (Lyon/France)

Florian Grillitsch (Hoffenheim/Austria)

Fabian Ruiz (Napoli/Spain) 

Florian Neuhaus (Borussia Mönchengladbach/Germany) 

Let's look at some graphs and compare these four against Henderson, and see how closely do they match his profile -

It can be inferred quite easily that none of them can really match up to the Englishman when it comes to progressing the ball via passes, as Henderson stands out clearly when it comes to progressive passes, passes into the final third, or long passes; but they all bring other qualities which might benefit Liverpool massively.

The 'Defensive' 8

When people think of a Lyon midfielder, they usually think of Houssem Aouar. However, Maxence Caqueret is not someone to be overlooked. Caqueret is valued at just £15.30m by Transfermarkt, and completed almost 5.8 tackles and interceptions last season in Ligue 1. However, he is more than a conventional destroyer, partnering his defensive output with good ball progression, completing 6.7 progressive passes per 90, 4.4 progressive carries per 90, and 1.8 dribbles completed per 90. 

If Liverpool want to partner Fabinho with Caqueret, Thiago can play as the 'offensive' 8 in their midfield 3. The Frenchman also ranks in the top 1% in Europe's top 5 leagues for pressures applied (midfielders only) and would might fit quite well in Liverpool's pressing system. With this already impressive skillset, the still 21-year-old also manages 2.4 shot creating actions.

The 'Like for Like' Replacement

Florian Grillitsch seems to be the most Henderson-like player out of all the options. The Austrian is now one of the best midfielders in the Bundesliga, and is still quite underrated when it comes to fans of other leagues. In 2020/21, he completed 4.1 tackles and interceptions per 90, completed 7.3 progressive passes per 90, as well as the same number of progressive carries per 90.

Like Henderson, he also made some appearances at center-back, which led to his pressure numbers falling off compared to previous seasons. However, he did complete ~20 pressures a game in earlier seasons, so it's fair to say he can still do it as and when Klopp would require him to do.

Valued at just £16.20m, he could prove to be a bargain for Liverpool, and with him turning 26 soon, he would be ready to step into the first team straight away as well. This is the kind of signing one would expect from the Liverpool recruitment team, who are well-known to find undervalued players across the continent.

The 'Offensive' 8

Fabian Ruiz was once considered to be one of the best midfield prospects in Europe when he was at Real Betis, and has been linked to the likes of Barcelona, Real Madrid and more recently, Atletico Madrid. However, his stock seems to have somewhat stalled at Napoli, who have been unable to mount a serious title challenge since the days of Maurizio Sarri. Ruiz, by all aspects, still remains a truly skilled midfielder however. Being tasked with more offensive responsibilities at Napoli, the 25-year-old Spaniard contributes to almost 4 shot creating actions per 90, ranking in the top 4 percent for the same for midfielders Europe's top 5 leagues, and 1.5 key passes per 90. 

The Spaniard also remains a very good progressor of the ball, with 5.8 progressive passes and 6.8 progressive carries per 90. Valued at £40.50m, he is easily the most ambitious target of all my suggestions, but with Liverpool possessing the defensive and passing prowess of Fabinho and Thiago respectively, Henderson still having 2 years left on his contract, and the failure of Naby Keita, Oxlade Chaimberlain, or Xherdan Shaqiri to nail down the offensive 8 position over Wijnaldum (who is now at PSG), Liverpool might want to look at a more offensive midfielder to create chances for Salah and Mane. This is especially true given the clear decline in the offensive stats of Roberto Firmino, who took on the bulk of the chance-creation responsibility from the midfielders. 

The Player Liverpool 'Seem To Want'

Florian Neuhaus has been linked to Liverpool ever since the news broke out that Wijnaldum would be leaving the Merseyside club for free. Neuhaus, like Fabian Ruiz, is more of an attack-minded player than a defensive one. At 24, he has enough experience to start for Liverpool and is also malleable enough for Klopp to leave his mark on him. 

Like all the other midfielders we have profiled until now, he is a good progressor of the ball through passes and carries. He completes just under 3.5 tackles and interceptions per 90 whilst completing 1.5 dribbles per 90, but boasts a non-penalty xG+xA of 0.21 - ranking him in the top 20% of midfielders in Europe's top 5 leagues - whilst also creating 2.2 shots per 90. His pressure numbers fell off in the last season to around 13 pressures per 90, but has put up more than 17 pressures per 90 in the last two seasons, showing he can vary his game when required. 

Valued at £31.50m, the German certainly won't come cheap. However, if Klopp requires him to fill the role now vacated by Wijnaldum, Neuhaus might as well be the guy.

Conclusion

I started writing this when I read about Henderson's contract situation apparently being "confusing" and "complicated", but it turned out to be more than just that. It is not as straightforward to replace him as some might feel, and even then, Liverpool also have more urgent positions in their midfield they to fix.

 

Furthermore, even if he does renew his contract, he is already 31 and filling his boots in the long run would be something Liverpool might already be considering. They have a plethora of midfielders who they either they don't really use (Keita, Oxlade Chamberlain, Shaqiri) or aren't ready just yet (Curtis Jones). With Wijnaldum already having left the club and Thiago already 30 years old, Liverpool need to bring in a quality midfielder who works well in all three phases of play. 

They also need to replace the creative output of Roberto Firmino, who's numbers continue to fall season after season, and given they aren't looking to sign any forwards, that creativity might now have to come from their midfield. Klopp has rebuilt the team before, and all eyes are now on him to see if he can do it again if they want to keep challenging for domestic and European success.

==================================================================================================

References

FBRef.com

Transfermarkt