Finding A Striker for Brighton & Hove Albion

Introduction

Stories like that of this Brighton side don't come often.  Currently sitting 17th in the Premier League table, they might just be one of the most well-coached and entertaining sides in the league. Appointing Graham Potter from Swansea turned out to be a masterstroke for the Seagulls, as the English manager showed the league his credentials and coaching talent. Even the top managers are impressed by his work, with Pep Guardiola commenting “We were in front of the best English manager right now” after the Seagulls had given his much more expensive squad a run for their money at the Etihad Stadium. “You have to be a top side to play that way. As a spectator, I like to watch these teams. I like watching Brighton play. I recognise it. When I was a football player, I would love to play in this team.”, he added.

Brighton most commonly set up in a 3-4-3 / 3-4-1-2 formation, and have some exciting players throughout their team; most notably center-backs Ben White and Adam Webster and defensive-midfielder Yves Bissouma. Danny Welbeck has contributed to the highest number of goals (0.32) per 90 and has been useful, to say the least, but given how many chances they create, an efficient striker would surely elevate the Seagulls to the next level.

 The Definition of  "Under Performing"

Here is, what could probably be, the craziest statistic of the season - despite Brighton being 17th as of tonight, Expected Points (Points earned according to Expected Goals and Expected Goals Against) say that they should be FIFTH, behind only City, Chelsea, United, and Liverpool -

                                                                                                                       Image source:  @xGPhilosophy on Twitter

Offensively, Brighton have the eighth-best attack according to expected goals, accumulating an xG of 49 goals across the season and an xA of 31. However, they have only scored 35 goals and made 22 assists. This is a massive underperformance, one that is unlikely to be repeated in the 2021/22 season. Brighton should do everything in their power to hold on to Graham Potter and not make the mistake lower half clubs usually make, which is be reactionary and sack a manager whose results have been poor but the underlying statistics are quite good.

Defensively, Brighton are even more impressive. They have conceded the fifth-fewest goals this season, ahead of the likes of Manchester United, Liverpool, and Leicester City. According to expected goals too, they have the third-best defense in the league, only behind Manchester City and Chelsea.

A big issue when it comes to the defense is how poor Brighton are while defending set-pieces. Brighton allow the sixth-fewest shots from dead balls in the league, which is really encouraging. However, they have conceded the second-most goals from set-pieces in the league, sitting only behind Leeds United. Them being so poor can be seen visually here -

All these numbers can be summarised in one sentence: Brighton have been the epitome of underperformance in the Premier League this season.

 Coming To The Strikers

Here I plotted the difference between goals scored and xG accumulated for all forwards from Europe's top five leagues -

It can be inferred that every Brighton forward is underperforming their xG, and so is the case especially for Neal Maupay, whose difference is the 5th largest in the top five leagues (which is a seriously bad thing), and despite this he is their top-scorer with 8 goals (while xG suggests he should have scored ~13 goals). 

While it seems extremely unlikely that Maupay would again have a season as bad as the current one, they cannot rely on Danny Welbeck and Aaron Connolly to be the 15-goal-a-season striker they would need to eventually compete for a top-half finish.

Side note: That outlier, if you were wondering, on the top right is an unknown, Polish striker named Robert Lewandowski :)

Here is a radar chart depicting some key stats for Brighton strikers -

No one is underperforming as much as Maupay (but they all are), and the Frenchman is still Potter's number one choice. He has some attributes of a playmaking forward, contributing to 2.8 shot-creating-actions per 90, which means he can be paired up with a new signing too. So what are we looking for in our new striker?

• Not underperforming his xG, yet a good finisher
• Valued at under £30m
• Taller than Maupay (5'7'') so he can play as a target man
• Younger than the age of 25 so Brighton can retain resale value in the future

Let's take a look at some options I feel would suit Brighton -

Dusan Vlahovic (Fiorentina)

The 21-year-old Serbian has been a sensation in Seria A this season, having scored 21 goals (from an xG of 18) and providing 3 assists (0.69 xG+A per 90).  From open play, he has accumulated an xG of 14 and has scored all 7 penalties he has taken this season. In short, he is very consistent with his xG and just slightly overperforms it, showing it might be sustainable (as it usually is for an above-average finisher).

He is much more of a traditional number 9, standing at 6'2, and wins 3.4 aerial duals per 90 (For reference, Dominic Calvert-Lewin wins 4.63 aerial duals per 90). This means he would be a threat from set-pieces and also help Brighton defend them much better, which we have seen has been a major issue for them this season. He takes ~2.9 shots per 90 which is a really healthy amount and also completes ~1.2 dribbles per 90.

The Serb can surely improve his game a lot, but at just 21 is exactly the type of player Brighton should be looking at. He is valued at £22.50m by Transfermarkt and given the financial strain caused by COVID on the Italian clubs, might be available at a price not much more than £25m.

Sasa Kalajdzic (Stuttgart)

The 23-year-old Austrian has lit up the Bundesliga since the start of the current season. He has the fourth-highest goals vs expected goals difference in the top five leagues, overperforming his xG by ~6 goals.  He has accumulated an xG of ~9 goals and has scored 15, whilst also providing 5 assists (0.55 xG+A per 90). Standing at 6'6'', he is quite obviously a beast in the air and wins about 4.7 aerial duals per 90.

For someone who is so tall, he isn't very lazy too as he applies 16.6 pressures per 90. Similar to Vlahovic, he would also improve Brighton's defending from set-pieces. He is certainly not the top-end striker his goal numbers suggest, but being valued at just £15.30m could be a bargain for any club looking for a target-man. This could very well be a high-risk, high-reward signing.

Musa Barrow (Bologna)

Musa Barrow spent the 2020/21 season at Bologna on loan from Atalanta and contributed to 16 goals for the team which finished eleventh in Seria A. He scored 8 goals (8.3 xG) and provided 8 assists (5.1 xA) which amounts to about 0.43 xG+A per 90. The 22-year-old also completes ~1.6 dribbles, completes 2.66 progressive passes, and 5.7 progressive carries per 90, although this is offset by the fact that he also spent his playing time on the left-wing.

This transfer would probably be the toughest to pull off, given Bologna have just bought him outright from Atalanta for £16.20m, plus he is more in the mould of Neal Maupay as compared to the other options.

Conclusion

In all, Dusan Vlahovic would definitely be my pick out of the three. He has excellent underlying numbers and Fiorentina could really be tempted with a substantial enough offer. I went for some not-so-obvious strikers too, but I would give a special mention to Brentford striker Ivan Toney, valued at £16.20m, who absolutely tore apart the Championship, providing 30 goals and 10 assists (!!!). If Brighton could get him from under the noses of other high-profile PL clubs, it would be an absolute coup.

In all, Brighton have an excellent coach, an excellent system and are unlikely to underperform as much as they did this season. Signing a good striker to pair up with Neal Maupay instead of having to rely on a 30-year-old, injury-prone Danny Welbeck and an inconsistent Aaron Connolly might just be the difference in finishing mid-table and competing for Europe. If the owners back Potter, they could be one of the most entertaining sides in the league next season once again.

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References -

• whoscored.com
• Statsbomb data via FBRef.com
• @xGPhilosophy on Twitter
• Transfermarkt.co.uk