Who leads the line for Manchester United in 2021/22?
United's current strikers
The strikers at Man United - Anthony Martial and Edinson Cavani - are facing worse seasons than expected no matter how you think of them. The statement holds more true for Martial than for Cavani though, with the former scoring just 4 goals whilst xG would predict an average striker to score about 7 goals from those chances. With only about a third of the season left to play, amassing an xG of just 7.4 would still be considered diabolical for a starting forward at Manchester United.
Martial is 25 now, and can no longer be considered a "youngster who can develop into something special". He had a good 2019/20 season, as he scored 17 goals (from an xG of 13.2) and also provided 6 assists (from an xA of 4.6). Fans and the manager rightly considered it to finally be the season after which Martial explodes and fulfills the promise he showed as a youngster. However, in hindsight, it seems to be a flash in the pan, since the only other time he scored over 10 goals in a season was in 2015/16, which was his first season at United. With his valuation dropping to under €50m, fans are reasonable to question if selling Martial right now would bring about the greatest profit for the club.
United ended up signing 34-year-old Edinson Cavani on transfer deadline day, and it came off as a panic buy, rightly so, given how United could have signed him at any point in the transfer window if he was a genuine target. Despite the drama, the experienced Uruguayan has impressed in the limited minutes he has played, scoring 6 goals and providing 2 assists.
As Cavani gained his fitness back, it was clear to see that Ole started trusting him more and it led to Martial eventually being benched. Studying the types of forwards they are, it can be inferred as to what kind of striker Ole wants his team to have, which gives a clear indication as to why he demanded the signing of Erling Haaland.
Cavani is a much better player in the box. His movement, anticipation, and predatory instincts line up well with the qualities Solskjaer has publicly demanded from Martial over his tenure. He can constantly be found near the penalty area, trying to get on the end of crosses, pull-backs, and loose balls.
Martial has shown flashes of those qualities, with his header against Aston Villa a great example.
But the Frenchman clearly favors the space usually occupied by a typical left-inside forward, i.e. between the right-back and center-back. This isn't surprising, as most people would know he spent most of his time playing as a left-winger.
Considering all the factors, it can be observed that the forward Solskjaer would want is someone who is a natural striker and is more of an old-fashioned number 9, but is still good on the ball and can link-up play to a decent level. The solution that is on the mind of every United fan? A certain Norwegian wonderkid.
Erling Braut Haaland
Ah. United wanting to sign the 20-year-old is easier said than done. Dortmund value him in excess of €120m this summer - a price which only a few super clubs have the capability of paying - and he has a release-clause of €75m which is active from the summer of 2022 which would in-turn mean more suitors like Liverpool potentially joining the race to sign him. Currently, the fore-runners seem to be Man City and Barcelona, with any real hope United have of signing him mostly rests on the personal relationship that Solksjaer has with Haaland.
Here is a shot map of the Norwegian for the 2020/21 season:
A few key characteristics stand out immediately - getting in and around the penalty spot and the six-yard box, taking high-quality shots, and not really attempting many speculative shots from outside the box.
After going through the statistics of strikers currently operating in Europe, I have narrowed down two strikers who I consider some of the better alternatives if United cannot secure the signing of Haaland.
André Silva
We first look at Haaland's rival to the Bundesliga's golden boot - Eintracht Frankfurt. After having a few seasons which can be considered "mediocre" at best at AC Milan and Sevilla, the Portuguese has massively stepped up his game this season and is finally living up to the promise he showed in his academy days at FC Porto. He has scored 21 goals in 24 appearances this season (98 minutes per goal, 86 minutes per goal involvement), which is the same number as Haaland.
Silva takes over 3.5 shots per 90 with an xG of 0.84 per 90, whilst also creating almost 1 key pass per 90. When it comes to pressing, however, he is not someone who would be considered a massive improvement over Martial. He completes 10.6 pressures per 90 versus the 9.8 pressures put up by Martial. It should be noted that Haaland himself completes just 10.1 pressures per 90.
Here is Silva's shot map for the season:
The 25-year-old is overperforming his xG by about 2 goals, which shows he is finishing at an above-average rate, but the gap is not extreme enough to consider it an outlier and something which he might not be able to replicate throughout the rest of his career. Of the 21 goals, 13 are right-footed, 3 are left-footed shots and 5 are headers. He is a very good all-rounded striker and would be a decent alternative at around €50m, with Transfermarkt valuing him at €37m.
Alexander Isak
The 21-year-old Swede has steadily been improving and honing his skills at an entertaining Real Sociedad side. He didn't really get a chance to shine at Borussia Dortmund, but since moving to Spain he has been able to showcase his talents whilst being surrounded by some of the most technically gifted players in La Liga. He has scored 12 goals in 24 appearances this season (137 minutes per goal, 117 minutes per goal involvement). He has 6 right-footed, 3 left-footed, and 3 headed goals and really models as a younger version of Andre Silva.
Isak takes over 3.24 shots per 90 with an xG of 0.69 per 90 while creating 0.44 key passes per 90. He completes 11.25 pressures per 90. These are all impressive numbers for a 21-year-old since we have to keep reminding ourselves that not every youngster is a Haaland or Mbappe.
Here is Isak's shot profile:
Isak is performing exactly as per what his xG+A suggests, and the upside to signing him would be immense. He is a good finisher, is decent at dribbling, and is a strong carrier of the ball too. He is 6'2 and can dominate defenders in the air as he matures physically over the next 2 years. None of this means he is perfect, he can certainly improve a lot - but what it means is that if Isak can develop his game and play his best years at United, the red devils would have sorted their striker position for a long time. Transfermarkt values him at just under €30m and United could tempt Sociedad with any bid under €40m.
Conclusion
Erling Haaland should certainly be United's top priority as a striker, but realistically United wouldn't be able to sign both Sancho and Haaland from Dortmund. In such a case, United should prioritize signing Sancho as there is a dearth of world-class right-wingers compared to strikers, and as good as Haaland is, United have Rashford on the left who is also a "score first" minded player, whilst Bruno Fernandes, Mason Greenwood, and Jadon Sancho himself are all competent goalscorers themselves. United could opt for Silva or Isak up top and spend the majority of the budget on Sancho plus a CDM to give a much-needed balance to the team. The upcoming summer window is pivotal for Solskjaer and the future of the red devils.
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Resources:
understat.com
whoscored.com
fbref.com
transfermarkt.com
Well written blog bro 👍🏻
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