How to fix Barcelona - a short essay

1. Background

FC Barcelona are currently 5th in La Liga, sitting 8 points behind table-toppers Atletico Madrid having played one game more. They have only won 3 out of the last 5 matches. This season could be that season where Barcelona could miss out on Champions League football as well.  

Barcelona have scored 28 goals in the league, and unsurprisingly Lionel Messi is their top scorer with 7 goals. The injured Ansu Fati is the second top scorer, with 4 goals. With the new year on the horizon, these are pitiful statistics for a club of Barcelona's stature.  What is more worrying, is that Messi is finally underperforming his xG and xA this season. If this continues, this could be an extremely long season for the cules.

2. Statistics

Barcelona are actually top of the league for expected goals, with an xG of around 33 goals (actual goals scored -> 28). On the surface, this suggests that the players will sooner or later catch up to the xG and would start scoring on a more regular basis. However, Barcelona sit 4th in the league for expected points behind Real Sociedad, Villarreal, and Real Madrid. So how does this happen? It's their awful defence.

Barcelona have conceded 14 goals against an xGA of 19. This means their defence is over-performing, and they have actually conceded fewer goals than expected. This is what keeps them 4th according to xPts.

3. The Defence

The current roster of central defenders consists of Gerard Pique, Clement Lenglet, Samuel Umtiti, Ronald Araujo, and Oscar Mingueza.  Only Pique, Lenglet, and Umtiti can be considered as experienced defenders, and out of those three Pique is currently injured and Umtiti has barely been fit since last season. That means that Koeman had to field a back three of Lenglet, Araujo, and Mingueza in their last match against Real Valladolid. Even though they convincingly beat Valladolid 3-0, Barcelona need to re-enforce the backline with some established and top-quality defenders.

Another contributing reason for their poor defence is the lack of an elite defensive midfielder. They have Pjanic, De Jong, and Busquets who can play in that position, and none of them provide enough cover to the defence as much as a Casemiro does to the Real Madrid, or Kante does to the Chelsea defence.

It is astonishing how a club of this size can miss out on such an obvious deficiency in their team.

4. Signings

As discussed previously, Barcelona's immediate concerns should be replacing Sergio Busquets (not with Pjanic, duh) and Gerard Pique. Here are my suggestions for these positions -

    i. Central Defender

        Criteria -> Passing, defensive capability, evading initial wave of pressure, long passer, high potential

        a. Dream Signing - Dayot Upamecano

            This guy needs no introduction. He is at the peak of every big club's wishlist, but there have not been any reports linking him to the Blaugrana. Upamecano has all the qualities to be the ideal signing - he is fast, strong, athletic, a great passer, and good at evading the initial pressure through simple dribbling. He manages 3.1 tackles+interceptions, 2.2 clearances, and being dribbled past just 0.4 times per game in all competitions. He manages an average of  74 passes per game with an accuracy of 88% and 6.7 long balls per 90. He has a 42 million euros release clause which becomes active next summer, which will make him the center of attraction for most clubs. Barcelona need to act fast if they want to sign this guy.

    b. Secondary Option - Ibrahima Konate

            Upamecano's  RB Leipzig teammate could provide a slightly more feasible alternative for Barcelona. Two seasons ago, he was regarded to be just as good, if not better, than Upamecano by RB Leipzig. Another name in the serious talent line of French defenders, Konate is still 21 years old. Standing at a height of almost 6'4, he averages 3.3 tackles+interceptions, 2.4 clearances, and is dribbled past 0.7 times per game. However, he is not the primary progressor of the ball in the Leipzig defence, who leave that task to the formerly mentioned defender. Nevertheless, Konate still manages 44 passes per game with an accuracy of 82%, whilst completing 2.3 long balls per 90. Given how young he is, there is a genuine potential of an elite defender here and is being overlooked by the majority of the big clubs in Europe. Transfermarkt values the defender at 37.3 million euros and Leipzig would probably sell him for around 50 million.

    ii. Defensive Midfielder

        Criteria -> Dribbling, ball winner, high pass success rate, above-average long passer, young, not expensive

        a. Dream Signing - Manuel Locatelli

            He blew up at AC Milan in 2018 at the age of 20 but was sold to Sassuolo on a permanent transfer in 2019 after a loan spell at the same club. Since the transfer however, he has emerged as one of Europe's most exciting defensive midfielders, averaging 3.7 tackles+interceptions, 0.8 dribbles, and 1.6 fouls suffered per game, showcasing he is an excellent ball-winner and can evade pressure when needed. He also manages 1.1 key passes from deep midfield. Locatelli is also an extremely good passer, managing almost 75 passes per game with an accuracy of 87.5% with an impressive 4.2 long balls per game. He does get dispossessed 1.2 times per 90 but being just 22, he has a very high ceiling and would complement Frenkie De Jong, with those two forming what could be one of the best midfields in the world. He is valued at just under 30 million euros and would be a bargain for Barcelona.

   

        b. Secondary Option - Yves Bissouma

            A less glamorous, and hence an even cheaper option for Barcelona would be Brighton's Bissouma. Now used to playing a more attractive style of football under Graham Potter, the 24 year old manages 4.1 tackles+interceptions and 1.6 clearances per game. He is also a competent dribbler with 1.5 dribbles and 1.2 fouls suffered per game. He averages 48 passes per game, which is lesser than Locatelli but given his 86.2% pass success rate, it can be assumed that he would adapt well to being a more volume passer at Barcelona.  He also manages a very good 3.2 long balls per 90. Given Brighton's obvious lack of quality in comparison to Barcelona and Bissouma still not being anywhere near his peak, he could turn into a seriously good midfielder and would again form a great partnership with Frenkie De Jong. He is valued at under 15 million euros and would be a no-brainer for Barcelona who could even sell him for a higher price in case he doesn't work out.

    iii. Outside shouts

        a. Central Defender - Cristian Romero (Atalanta)

        b. Defensive Midfielder - Diadie Samassékou (Hoffenheim)

5. Conclusion

Barcelona have wasted a lot of funds in the past few years over players who either did not suit their style (Coutinho, Braithwaite), fixated on players who were ageing (Griezmann, Pjanic) or simply got unlucky (Dembele). They need to clear out a lot of deadwood and bring in young players who can contribute in the present and grow into elite players over the next decade. The upcoming presidential elections is crucial for the club and the fans.